Football Value Bets 2023-03-11
You can find many websites that are giving or even selling Football value bets or Expert football picks. A big majority of them are scammers, so the question is: Why are we different? As a group of math freaks, we decided to convert our knowledge into something practical. This is however just a statement and every anonymous internet scammer would claim exactly that.
To prove our expertise, we dare you to check our results. From the calendar on the left side, pick a date and look at how we did. For each day since 2018 you can see how we did.
Did you find a day with a negative result? Yes, this happens. It is impossible to guess correctly the outcomes of hundreds of thousands football fixtures and we are not doing that.
Our aim is a long term revenue over 10% and if you check, you will see we are even better than that. What we are doing is analysing thousands of fixtures by dozens of bookmakers and selecting only football value bets
Football value bets are the fixtures where the bookmaker is for some reason giving "too much".
- Look at the list of fixtures and chose bookmakers that are legal or licensed in your country.
- Click on the bookmakers link or type in the bookmaker's url and find the fixture.
- Check if the bookmaker did not lower the odds in the meanwhile. If the odds are lower, do NOT bet on it.
- Run the suggestion through your inner sceptic and consider if betting on it is a good idea.
- Make sure to start out small.
11/03/2023 evaluation: We are showing 77 value bet opportunities from 40 leagues with stake amount £72.00, where the result is £0.25. The average market margin of stakes worth £72.00 is -6.48. This means that if the result is a higher number compared to bookies market margin, our value bets work. We see this condition to be fulfilled most of the time and you can even improve the result by doing an extra selection, using your critical thinking.
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Bundesliga
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Ligat ha'Al
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Liga 1
Premier League
Pro League
La Liga
La Liga 2
1. Lig
Super Lig
Premier League
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Primera Division
Club Friendlies 1
Friendly International
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | Mamelodi Sundowns | 5-2 | Al Ahly | 2 | pncl | 3.30 | 3.11 | 0.57 | ☓ | |
| 16:00 | Petro de Luanda | 0-2 | Wydad Casablanca | 1 | betcris | 5.75 | 5.27 | 0.56 | ☓ | |
| 19:00 | JS Kabylie | 2-1 | Vita Club | 1 | betvictor | 1.57 | 1.53 | 1.22 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | Argentinos Juniors | 1-1 | Arsenal de Sarandi | 1 | 1XBet | 1.49 | 1.46 | 1.34 | ☓ | |
| 20:00 | San Lorenzo | 4-0 | Gimnasia La Plata | 1 | dafabet | 1.96 | 1.90 | 0.91 | ✓ | |
| 22:15 | Defensa y Justicia | 1-1 | Talleres Córdoba | 2 | betvictor | 2.60 | 2.48 | 0.70 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:00 | Central Coast Mariners | 4-1 | Macarthur | 1 | cloudbet | 1.78 | 1.73 | 1.03 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:00 | Adelaide United W | 2-1 | Perth Glory W | 2 | cloudbet | 3.02 | 2.86 | 0.62 | ☓ | |
| 04:00 | Sydney W | 0-1 | Wellington Phoenix W | X | pncl | 10.62 | 9.44 | 0.27 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:00 | Lierse Kempenzonen | 2-0 | RSC Anderlecht II | 1 | cloudbet | 2.71 | 2.58 | 0.68 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:45 | RFC Seraing | 0-2 | Antwerp | 2 | sportingbet | 1.46 | 1.43 | 1.39 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | Internacional RS W | 2-0 | Real Brasília W | 2 | marathon | 6.70 | 6.09 | 0.37 | ☓ | |
| 21:30 | Bahia W | 10-0 | Ceará W | 1 | 1XBet | 1.13 | 1.12 | 3.36 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | Spartak Varna | 1-2 | Lokomotiv Sofia 1929 | 1 | marathon | 2.21 | 2.12 | 0.84 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | Lys Sassandra | 0-1 | AFAD | 2 | 1XBet | 2.07 | 2.00 | 0.86 | ✓ | |
| 17:45 | Stella | 0-1 | SOA | 2 | 1XBet | 2.96 | 2.80 | 0.63 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | Lokomotiva Zagreb | 1-0 | Slaven Koprivnica | 1 | nordicbet | 2.00 | 1.93 | 0.91 | ✓ | |
| 17:10 | Šibenik | 2-1 | Dinamo Zagreb | 2 | dafabet | 1.41 | 1.39 | 1.46 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | Sigma Olomouc | 3-0 | České Budějovice | 1 | Betsson | 1.70 | 1.66 | 1.09 | ✓ | |
| 14:00 | Baník Ostrava | 0-3 | Sparta Praha | 2 | Betsson | 1.95 | 1.89 | 1.02 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | Hillerød | 2-0 | Næstved | 1 | pncl | 2.79 | 2.65 | 0.66 | ✓ | |
| 14:00 | Nykøbing | 4-2 | HB Køge | 1 | tipico | 3.60 | 3.38 | 0.54 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:00 | Al Mokawloon | 0-1 | Smouha | 2 | pncl | 4.02 | 3.75 | 0.49 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | Bristol City | 2-0 | Blackpool | 1 | unibet | 2.00 | 1.93 | 0.89 | ✓ | |
| 15:00 | Queens Park Rangers | 1-0 | Watford | 2 | nordicbet | 2.28 | 2.19 | 0.82 | ☓ | |
| 15:00 | Reading | 0-1 | Millwall | 2 | 888sport | 2.12 | 2.04 | 0.84 | ✓ | |
| 15:00 | Sheffield United | 0-1 | Luton Town | 1 | sportingbet | 3.90 | 3.64 | 0.82 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | Bolton Wanderers | 0-2 | Ipswich Town | 2 | Betsson | 2.15 | 2.07 | 0.84 | ✓ | |
| 15:00 | Milton Keynes Dons | 1-0 | Cambridge United | 2 | 888sport | 3.40 | 3.20 | 0.58 | ☓ | |
| 15:00 | Peterborough United | 0-3 | Cheltenham Town | 2 | betfair | 7.00 | 6.35 | 0.34 | ✓ | |
| 15:00 | Shrewsbury Town | 3-1 | Morecambe | 1 | Betsson | 1.78 | 1.73 | 1.03 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | Barrow | 0-0 | Sutton United | 2 | Betsson | 2.95 | 2.79 | 0.64 | ☓ | |
| 15:00 | Crawley Town | 3-1 | Harrogate Town | 2 | pncl | 3.09 | 2.92 | 0.60 | ☓ | |
| 15:00 | Stevenage | 3-1 | Walsall | 1 | Betsson | 1.85 | 1.79 | 0.98 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | Eastleigh | 1-0 | Oldham Athletic | 1 | pncl | 2.28 | 2.19 | 0.78 | ✓ | |
| 15:00 | Woking | 2-0 | Maidenhead United | 2 | cloudbet | 6.58 | 5.99 | 0.36 | ☓ | |
| 15:00 | Wrexham | 1-0 | Southend United | 1 | 188bet | 1.52 | 1.49 | 1.29 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | AFC Bournemouth | 1-0 | Liverpool | 2 | unibet | 1.45 | 1.42 | 1.39 | ☓ | |
| 15:00 | Leeds United | 2-2 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 2 | Betsson | 2.05 | 1.98 | 0.90 | ☓ | |
| 17:30 | Crystal Palace | 0-1 | Manchester City | 2 | unibet | 1.42 | 1.40 | 1.44 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:00 | Rodez | 3-2 | Caen | 2 | sportingbet | 4.20 | 3.91 | 0.83 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | St. Pauli | 2-1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth | 2 | 888sport | 3.90 | 3.64 | 0.51 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | FC Bayern München | 5-3 | FC Augsburg | 1 | interwetten | 1.15 | 1.14 | 2.84 | ✓ | |
| 14:30 | RB Leipzig | 3-0 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1 | marathon | 1.47 | 1.44 | 1.36 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:30 | Tractor Sazi | 0-1 | Mes Rafsanjan | X | 1XBet | 2.88 | 2.73 | 0.65 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | Hapoel Haifa | 1-1 | Maccabi Tel Aviv | 2 | cashpoint | 1.65 | 1.61 | 1.16 | ☓ | |
| 15:30 | Hapoel Katamon | 0-1 | Maccabi Bnei Raina | 1 | sbo | 1.96 | 1.90 | 0.93 | ☓ | |
| 16:30 | Sektzia Nes Tziona | 1-3 | Hapoel Hadera | 1 | pncl | 3.16 | 2.98 | 0.59 | ☓ | |
| 17:30 | Maccabi Netanya | 0-2 | Ashdod | 1 | pncl | 2.48 | 2.37 | 0.73 | ☓ | |
| 17:30 | Bnei Sakhnin | 2-0 | Beitar Jerusalem | 2 | pncl | 2.58 | 2.46 | 0.70 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:15 | Bari 1908 | 0-0 | Frosinone | 2 | pncl | 2.56 | 2.44 | 0.71 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | Albirex Niigata | 1-0 | Kawasaki Frontale | 2 | sbo | 1.97 | 1.90 | 0.92 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03:05 | Puebla | 1-0 | Guadalajara | 1 | unibet | 3.20 | 3.02 | 0.58 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | FUS Rabat | 1-1 | Khouribga | 1 | 1XBet | 1.67 | 1.63 | 1.11 | ☓ | |
| 19:30 | Moghreb Tétouan | 0-0 | RSB Berkane | 2 | pncl | 2.63 | 2.51 | 0.69 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:30 | Zagłębie Lubin | 0-1 | Pogoń Szczecin | 2 | 888sport | 2.25 | 2.16 | 0.83 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:30 | SSC Farul | 2-1 | Rapid Bucuresti | 2 | pncl | 4.18 | 3.89 | 0.48 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:00 | Krasnodar | 3-1 | Dinamo Moskva | 1 | marathon | 2.85 | 2.70 | 0.70 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | Al Tai | 1-3 | Dhamk | 2 | pncl | 4.05 | 3.78 | 0.50 | ✓ | |
| 15:00 | Al Adalh | 0-3 | Al Raed | 2 | pncl | 2.76 | 2.62 | 0.66 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | Real Madrid | 3-1 | Espanyol | 1 | unibet | 1.32 | 1.30 | 1.68 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:30 | UD Ibiza | 0-0 | Villarreal II | 1 | pncl | 2.76 | 2.62 | 0.66 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:00 | Göztepe | 1-1 | Pendikspor | 1 | pncl | 2.90 | 2.75 | 0.63 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | Antalyaspor | 4-0 | Kayserispor | 2 | pncl | 3.75 | 3.51 | 0.52 | ☓ | |
| 16:00 | Galatasaray | 1-0 | Kasımpaşa | 1 | pncl | 1.51 | 1.48 | 1.30 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | Minai | 1-1 | Oleksandria | 1 | pncl | 4.23 | 3.94 | 0.47 | ☓ | |
| 12:00 | Inhulets | 2-1 | Metal Kharkiv | 1 | Betsson | 2.55 | 2.43 | 0.73 | ✓ | |
| 12:00 | Zorya | 3-1 | Lviv | 1 | marathon | 1.48 | 1.45 | 1.34 | ✓ | |
| 13:00 | Chornomorets | 1-1 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv | 2 | 1XBet | 3.34 | 3.14 | 0.58 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:45 | Al Jazira | 2-3 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai | 1 | unibet | 2.48 | 2.37 | 0.72 | ☓ | |
| 16:30 | Al Wasl | 1-1 | Al Sharjah | 1 | cloudbet | 3.10 | 2.93 | 0.60 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20:00 | Wanderers | 0-1 | Plaza Colonia | 2 | pncl | 4.07 | 3.79 | 0.49 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | Mjøndalen | 2-3 | Moss | 1 | Bwin sports | 1.60 | 1.56 | 1.22 | ☓ | |
| 12:00 | Notodden | 3-2 | Follo | 1 | Bwin sports | 2.00 | 1.93 | 0.98 | ✓ | |
| 13:00 | Ranheim | 0-2 | Strindheim | 1 | pncl | 1.16 | 1.15 | 2.70 | ☓ | |
| 13:00 | Egersund | 2-2 | Mandalskameratene | 1 | tipico | 1.15 | 1.14 | 2.69 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:00 | Jamaica | 0-1 | Trinidad and Tobago | 1 | titanbet | 1.65 | 1.61 | 1.15 | ☓ |