Football Value Bets 2023-03-04
You can find many websites that are giving or even selling Football value bets or Expert football picks. A big majority of them are scammers, so the question is: Why are we different? As a group of math freaks, we decided to convert our knowledge into something practical. This is however just a statement and every anonymous internet scammer would claim exactly that.
To prove our expertise, we dare you to check our results. From the calendar on the left side, pick a date and look at how we did. For each day since 2018 you can see how we did.
Did you find a day with a negative result? Yes, this happens. It is impossible to guess correctly the outcomes of hundreds of thousands football fixtures and we are not doing that.
Our aim is a long term revenue over 10% and if you check, you will see we are even better than that. What we are doing is analysing thousands of fixtures by dozens of bookmakers and selecting only football value bets
Football value bets are the fixtures where the bookmaker is for some reason giving "too much".
- Look at the list of fixtures and chose bookmakers that are legal or licensed in your country.
- Click on the bookmakers link or type in the bookmaker's url and find the fixture.
- Check if the bookmaker did not lower the odds in the meanwhile. If the odds are lower, do NOT bet on it.
- Run the suggestion through your inner sceptic and consider if betting on it is a good idea.
- Make sure to start out small.
04/03/2023 evaluation: We are showing 90 value bet opportunities from 40 leagues with stake amount £73.64, where the result is £-3.97. The average market margin of stakes worth £73.64 is -6.63. This means that if the result is a higher number compared to bookies market margin, our value bets work. We see this condition to be fulfilled most of the time and you can even improve the result by doing an extra selection, using your critical thinking.
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Liga 1
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Pro League
Premier League
La Liga
La Liga 2
Super League
1. Lig
Super Lig
Premier League
Primera Division
Club Friendlies 3
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:15 | Lanús | 0-2 | River Plate | 2 | dafabet | 2.18 | 2.10 | 0.82 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02:00 | Wellington Phoenix | 2-1 | Newcastle Jets | 1 | Bwin sports | 2.30 | 2.21 | 0.83 | ✓ | |
| 06:00 | Western United | 2-1 | Perth Glory | 1 | Bwin sports | 3.20 | 3.02 | 0.76 | ✓ | |
| 06:00 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 2-0 | Central Coast Mariners | 1 | nitrogen sports | 2.33 | 2.23 | 0.77 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:00 | Canberra United W | 4-2 | Adelaide United W | 2 | pncl | 3.55 | 3.33 | 0.54 | ☓ | |
| 04:40 | Wellington Phoenix W | 1-1 | Brisbane Roar W | 1 | pncl | 3.92 | 3.66 | 0.52 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:00 | Austria Lustenau | 0-2 | Sturm Graz | 2 | 1XBet | 1.62 | 1.58 | 1.18 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:00 | Waasland-Beveren | 2-1 | RWDM | 2 | cloudbet | 3.07 | 2.90 | 0.60 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | Kortrijk | 0-1 | Sporting Charleroi | 2 | Betsson | 2.45 | 2.34 | 0.74 | ✓ | |
| 17:15 | Cercle Brugge | 3-1 | RFC Seraing | 1 | 888sport | 1.36 | 1.34 | 1.60 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:00 | Ferroviária W | 2-1 | Internacional RS W | 2 | pncl | 3.40 | 3.20 | 0.57 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | Cherno More | 1-2 | Botev Plovdiv | 1 | 1XBet | 1.87 | 1.81 | 1.00 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | Korhogo | 1-0 | Denguélé | 2 | pncl | 2.17 | 2.09 | 0.84 | ☓ | |
| 16:00 | SOA | 0-2 | Sporting Gagnoa | 1 | pncl | 3.50 | 3.29 | 0.59 | ☓ | |
| 18:00 | San-Pedro | 0-2 | Stade d'Abidjan | 2 | 1XBet | 3.74 | 3.50 | 0.53 | ✓ | |
| 19:00 | Bouake | 1-0 | Abengourou | 1 | betcris | 3.27 | 3.08 | 0.61 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | Varaždin | 2-0 | Šibenik | 1 | 888sport | 1.81 | 1.76 | 1.03 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:00 | Sparta Praha | 4-1 | Teplice | 1 | Betsson | 1.20 | 1.19 | 2.29 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | Hvidovre | 2-1 | SønderjyskE | 1 | pncl | 2.30 | 2.21 | 0.78 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | Blackpool | 0-0 | Burnley | 2 | Betsson | 1.68 | 1.64 | 1.11 | ☓ | |
| 15:00 | Millwall | 2-3 | Norwich City | 1 | cloudbet | 2.78 | 2.64 | 0.65 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | Accrington Stanley | 2-1 | Forest Green Rovers | 1 | betfair | 2.40 | 2.30 | 0.74 | ✓ | |
| 15:00 | Cambridge United | 0-1 | Portsmouth | 2 | 188bet | 2.26 | 2.17 | 0.80 | ✓ | |
| 15:00 | Plymouth Argyle | 2-0 | Charlton Athletic | 2 | betfair | 4.50 | 4.17 | 0.46 | ☓ | |
| 15:00 | Sheffield Wednesday | 1-0 | Peterborough United | 1 | sbo | 1.87 | 1.81 | 0.96 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | AFC Wimbledon | 1-3 | Mansfield Town | 1 | pncl | 3.39 | 3.19 | 0.56 | ☓ | |
| 15:00 | Carlisle United | 2-0 | Grimsby Town | 2 | ladbrokes | 4.50 | 4.17 | 0.46 | ☓ | |
| 15:00 | Leyton Orient | 1-1 | Swindon Town | 2 | ladbrokes | 5.20 | 4.79 | 0.41 | ☓ | |
| 15:00 | Salford City | 3-1 | Newport County | 2 | pncl | 3.33 | 3.14 | 0.57 | ☓ | |
| 15:00 | Sutton United | 1-1 | Crewe Alexandra | 2 | betfair | 6.50 | 5.92 | 0.37 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | Aldershot Town | 1-1 | Torquay United | 1 | pncl | 2.26 | 2.17 | 0.79 | ☓ | |
| 15:00 | Bromley | 1-1 | Notts County | 2 | tipico | 1.67 | 1.63 | 1.15 | ☓ | |
| 15:00 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 2-1 | York City | 1 | pncl | 2.42 | 2.32 | 0.74 | ✓ | |
| 15:00 | Dorking Wanderers | 0-0 | Halifax Town | 1 | pncl | 3.37 | 3.17 | 0.57 | ☓ | |
| 15:00 | Gateshead | 1-2 | Chesterfield | 2 | pncl | 2.26 | 2.17 | 0.79 | ✓ | |
| 15:00 | Oldham Athletic | 0-2 | Boreham Wood | 2 | cashpoint | 2.25 | 2.16 | 0.79 | ✓ | |
| 15:00 | Scunthorpe United | 0-1 | Eastleigh | 2 | cloudbet | 3.13 | 2.96 | 0.61 | ✓ | |
| 15:00 | Solihull Moors | 2-0 | Maidstone United | 2 | betfair | 5.50 | 5.05 | 0.41 | ☓ | |
| 15:00 | Wealdstone | 4-0 | Altrincham | 1 | cloudbet | 3.57 | 3.35 | 0.56 | ✓ | |
| 15:00 | Yeovil Town | 0-1 | Woking | 1 | pncl | 4.33 | 4.02 | 0.47 | ☓ | |
| 17:20 | Maidenhead United | 2-2 | Wrexham | 2 | pncl | 1.65 | 1.61 | 1.13 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | Arsenal | 3-2 | AFC Bournemouth | 1 | comeon | 1.28 | 1.26 | 1.83 | ✓ | |
| 15:00 | Aston Villa | 1-0 | Crystal Palace | 1 | cloudbet | 2.26 | 2.17 | 0.79 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:00 | Quevilly Rouen | 1-1 | Valenciennes | 1 | 188bet | 1.90 | 1.84 | 0.97 | ☓ | |
| 18:00 | Annecy | 0-3 | Metz | 1 | pncl | 3.96 | 3.70 | 0.50 | ☓ | |
| 18:00 | Dijon | 1-0 | Grenoble Foot 38 | 2 | pncl | 4.08 | 3.80 | 0.49 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | FC Union Berlin | 0-0 | FC Köln | 1 | 1XBet | 2.05 | 1.98 | 0.87 | ☓ | |
| 14:30 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0-0 | SC Freiburg | 2 | 1XBet | 2.87 | 2.72 | 0.64 | ☓ | |
| 14:30 | FC Augsburg | 2-1 | Werder Bremen | 1 | Bwin sports | 3.10 | 2.93 | 0.71 | ✓ | |
| 17:30 | VfB Stuttgart | 1-2 | FC Bayern München | 2 | Betsson | 1.52 | 1.49 | 1.31 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:00 | Asteras Tripolis | 1-1 | Atromitos | 2 | 888sport | 3.50 | 3.29 | 0.54 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | ATK Mohun Bagan | 2-0 | Odisha FC | 2 | betfair | 4.60 | 4.26 | 0.45 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona | 2-2 | Maccabi Netanya | 1 | cloudbet | 3.48 | 3.27 | 0.56 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | Pisa | 1-1 | Palermo | 1 | 10bet | 2.10 | 2.02 | 0.86 | ☓ | |
| 15:15 | Reggina | 0-1 | Parma | 1 | pncl | 2.81 | 2.67 | 0.67 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04:00 | Kawasaki Frontale | 1-1 | Shonan Bellmare | 1 | cloudbet | 1.91 | 1.85 | 0.96 | ☓ | |
| 05:00 | Yokohama | 1-3 | Kashima Antlers | 2 | sbo | 1.95 | 1.89 | 0.92 | ✓ | |
| 05:00 | Albirex Niigata | 2-2 | Consadole Sapporo | 1 | dafabet | 2.38 | 2.28 | 0.75 | ☓ | |
| 05:00 | Kyoto Sanga | 2-0 | Tokyo | 2 | dafabet | 2.30 | 2.21 | 0.88 | ☓ | |
| 05:00 | Vissel Kobe | 4-0 | Gamba Osaka | 1 | dafabet | 2.12 | 2.04 | 0.84 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | Incheon United | 3-3 | Daejeon Citizen | 2 | pncl | 3.44 | 3.23 | 0.55 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:05 | Mazatlán | 3-1 | Cruz Azul | 2 | Bwin sports | 2.30 | 2.21 | 0.81 | ☓ | |
| 03:15 | Tijuana | 1-1 | Atlas | 1 | 888sport | 2.18 | 2.10 | 0.82 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | Difaâ El Jadida | 0-1 | FAR Rabat | 1 | 888sport | 7.00 | 6.35 | 0.41 | ☓ | |
| 15:00 | Ittihad Tanger | 2-1 | Olympic Safi | 2 | sbo | 2.40 | 2.30 | 0.74 | ☓ | |
| 17:15 | Raja Casablanca | 1-0 | Chabab Mohammédia | 1 | betclic | 1.63 | 1.59 | 1.21 | ✓ | |
| 19:30 | Mouloudia Oujda | 2-0 | Hassania Agadir | 1 | tipico | 2.90 | 2.75 | 0.63 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | Widzew Lodz | 0-2 | Warta Poznań | 2 | pncl | 3.90 | 3.64 | 0.50 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | U Craiova 1948 | 1-0 | Botoşani | 2 | pncl | 4.74 | 4.39 | 0.44 | ☓ | |
| 18:00 | Rapid Bucuresti | 0-1 | Hermannstadt | 2 | 888sport | 5.20 | 4.79 | 0.42 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | Spartak Moskva | 2-2 | Ural | 1 | 1XBet | 1.63 | 1.59 | 1.15 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | Dhamk | 1-2 | Al Taawon | 2 | pncl | 2.34 | 2.24 | 0.76 | ✓ | |
| 17:30 | Al Shabab | 1-2 | Al Adalh | 1 | 1XBet | 1.26 | 1.25 | 2.04 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:30 | Richards Bay | 0-1 | Kaizer Chiefs | 1 | cloudbet | 3.89 | 3.63 | 0.52 | ☓ | |
| 15:45 | Royal AM | 2-0 | Sekhukhune United | 2 | pncl | 3.62 | 3.39 | 0.53 | ☓ | |
| 18:00 | Maritzburg United | 1-2 | Cape Town City | 2 | pncl | 2.47 | 2.36 | 0.73 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:30 | Mallorca | 0-1 | Elche | 1 | Betsson | 1.83 | 1.78 | 0.99 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:15 | Burgos | 1-3 | Granada | 1 | 888sport | 3.30 | 3.11 | 0.58 | ☓ | |
| 17:30 | Huesca | 3-0 | Levante | 2 | pncl | 2.35 | 2.25 | 0.76 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:30 | Luzern | 0-1 | Basel | 2 | pncl | 3.19 | 3.01 | 0.59 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:30 | Tuzlaspor | 1-0 | Gençlerbirliği | 2 | dafabet | 2.95 | 2.79 | 0.62 | ☓ | |
| 10:30 | Keçiörengücü | 3-1 | Bandırmaspor | 1 | pncl | 2.62 | 2.50 | 0.69 | ✓ | |
| 16:00 | Samsunspor | 2-0 | Rizespor | 1 | interwetten | 1.90 | 1.84 | 0.95 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | Trabzonspor | 1-2 | Ümraniyespor | 1 | cloudbet | 1.50 | 1.47 | 1.33 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | Oleksandria | 2-2 | Dnipro-1 | 2 | 1XBet | 1.98 | 1.91 | 0.91 | ☓ | |
| 12:00 | Dynamo Kyiv | 0-2 | Inhulets | 1 | Betsson | 1.36 | 1.34 | 1.85 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:45 | Torque | 0-3 | Defensor Sporting | 1 | pncl | 3.29 | 3.10 | 0.57 | ☓ |