Football Value Bets 2022-10-17
You can find many websites that are giving or even selling Football value bets or Expert football picks. A big majority of them are scammers, so the question is: Why are we different? As a group of math freaks, we decided to convert our knowledge into something practical. This is however just a statement and every anonymous internet scammer would claim exactly that.
To prove our expertise, we dare you to check our results. From the calendar on the left side, pick a date and look at how we did. For each day since 2018 you can see how we did.
Did you find a day with a negative result? Yes, this happens. It is impossible to guess correctly the outcomes of hundreds of thousands football fixtures and we are not doing that.
Our aim is a long term revenue over 10% and if you check, you will see we are even better than that. What we are doing is analysing thousands of fixtures by dozens of bookmakers and selecting only football value bets
Football value bets are the fixtures where the bookmaker is for some reason giving "too much".
- Look at the list of fixtures and chose bookmakers that are legal or licensed in your country.
- Click on the bookmakers link or type in the bookmaker's url and find the fixture.
- Check if the bookmaker did not lower the odds in the meanwhile. If the odds are lower, do NOT bet on it.
- Run the suggestion through your inner sceptic and consider if betting on it is a good idea.
- Make sure to start out small.
17/10/2022 evaluation: We are showing 87 value bet opportunities from 54 leagues with stake amount £77.13, where the result is £-0.37. The average market margin of stakes worth £77.13 is -6.94. This means that if the result is a higher number compared to bookies market margin, our value bets work. We see this condition to be fulfilled most of the time and you can even improve the result by doing an extra selection, using your critical thinking.
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| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:30 | Atlas | 0-0 | El Porvenir | 1 | marathonbet | 1.78 | 1.73 | 1.06 | ☓ | |
| 19:30 | Claypole | 1-0 | San Martín Burzaco | 1 | Bwin sports | 1.88 | 1.82 | 0.96 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | Banfield Res. | 0-0 | Independiente Res. | 1 | 1XBet | 2.65 | 2.52 | 0.71 | ☓ | |
| 15:00 | Defensa y Justicia Res. | 0-1 | Colón Res. | 2 | marathonbet | 3.66 | 3.43 | 0.54 | ✓ | |
| 15:00 | Racing Club Res. | 3-1 | Lanús Res. | 2 | marathonbet | 3.24 | 3.06 | 0.62 | ☓ | |
| 15:00 | Tigre Res. | 1-0 | Central Córdoba SdE Res. | 2 | 1XBet | 4.98 | 4.60 | 0.43 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:00 | Arsenal de Sarandi | 1-2 | Barracas Central | 1 | pncl | 2.27 | 2.18 | 0.79 | ☓ | |
| 19:00 | Gimnasia La Plata | 0-0 | Argentinos Juniors | 1 | pncl | 3.91 | 3.65 | 0.51 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:00 | Pyunik | 2-1 | Ararat-Armenia | 2 | pncl | 2.80 | 2.66 | 0.66 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:20 | Al Tadhamun | 2-0 | Qalali | 1 | pncl | 2.98 | 2.82 | 0.63 | ✓ | |
| 16:20 | A'Ali | 1-2 | Al-Najma | 2 | pncl | 2.82 | 2.68 | 0.67 | ✓ | |
| 16:20 | Alhassam | 4-0 | Al Reef | 1 | pncl | 2.12 | 2.04 | 0.84 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:00 | Excelsior Virton U21 | 1-1 | Westerlo U21 | X | pncl | 5.02 | 4.63 | 0.44 | ✓ | |
| 18:30 | Waasland-Beveren U21 | 0-3 | Sint-Truiden U21 | 2 | marathonbet | 2.22 | 2.13 | 0.81 | ✓ | |
| 18:30 | KV Oostende U21 | 3-2 | RWDM U21 | 1 | marathonbet | 1.59 | 1.55 | 1.26 | ✓ | |
| 19:00 | Lierse Kempenzonen U21 | 3-0 | Deinze U21 | 2 | ladbrokes | 3.60 | 3.38 | 0.54 | ☓ | |
| 19:00 | Dender U21 | 2-4 | Lommel U21 | 2 | betvictor | 2.55 | 2.43 | 0.70 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | Club Universitario | 1-1 | Aurora | 2 | unibet | 2.90 | 2.75 | 0.64 | ☓ | |
| 23:30 | Wilstermann | 1-3 | Independiente Petrolero | 1 | 188bet | 2.19 | 2.11 | 0.85 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 3-0 | Slavia Sofia | 1 | pncl | 2.21 | 2.12 | 0.81 | ✓ | |
| 18:00 | Beroe | 0-4 | Ludogorets | 2 | marathonbet | 1.46 | 1.43 | 1.43 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | Spartak Pleven | 0-3 | CSKA 1948 Sofia II | 2 | marathonbet | 3.54 | 3.32 | 0.57 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | Unión San Felipe | 1-0 | Puerto Montt | 1 | pncl | 2.57 | 2.45 | 0.74 | ✓ | |
| 21:00 | Barnechea | 2-0 | Fernández Vial | 2 | 1XBet | 3.07 | 2.90 | 0.65 | ☓ | |
| 23:30 | Melipilla | 2-1 | Santiago Morning | 1 | 188bet | 2.76 | 2.62 | 0.68 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:10 | Millonarios | 0-0 | Patriotas Boyacá | 1 | betregal | 1.49 | 1.46 | 1.33 | ☓ | |
| 21:30 | Envigado | 2-0 | Junior FC | 2 | pncl | 2.36 | 2.26 | 0.77 | ☓ | |
| 23:35 | Deportivo Cali | 1-1 | Once Caldas | 1 | pncl | 2.79 | 2.65 | 0.65 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:30 | SOL | 1-0 | Racing d'Abidjan | 1 | 888sport | 2.90 | 2.75 | 0.65 | ✓ | |
| 19:00 | Denguélé | 3-2 | Korhogo | 2 | 888sport | 4.35 | 4.04 | 0.49 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:00 | AEK Larnaca | 4-2 | Olympiakos | 1 | sbo | 1.64 | 1.60 | 1.16 | ✓ | |
| 17:00 | Apollon | 0-3 | Aris | 2 | marathonbet | 3.42 | 3.22 | 0.62 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:00 | Silkeborg | 3-3 | Randers | 1 | marathonbet | 1.93 | 1.87 | 1.09 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | Universidad Católica | 2-0 | Emelec | 1 | 1XBet | 1.69 | 1.65 | 1.14 | ✓ | |
| 00:00 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 0-2 | Aucas | 1 | marathon | 2.96 | 2.80 | 0.62 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:00 | Nottingham Forest U21 | 4-1 | Stoke City U21 | X | pncl | 4.53 | 4.20 | 0.46 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:00 | Middlesbrough U21 | 2-1 | West Brom U21 | 1 | marathon | 2.26 | 2.17 | 0.79 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | Wigan Athletic U21 | 2-1 | Peterborough United U21 | 1 | 888sport | 1.75 | 1.70 | 1.05 | ✓ | |
| 14:00 | Swansea City U21 | 3-2 | Charlton Athletic U21 | 1 | cloudbet | 1.65 | 1.61 | 1.17 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:00 | Southampton W | 1-0 | Birmingham W | 1 | 1XBet | 4.12 | 3.84 | 0.50 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:00 | Elva | 3-2 | Pärnu | 1 | 888sport | 1.50 | 1.47 | 1.35 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:30 | HJK W | 4-1 | PK-35 W | 1 | Betsson | 1.20 | 1.19 | 2.23 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:30 | TPS | 4-0 | Jaro | 1 | dafabet | 2.29 | 2.20 | 0.78 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:00 | Wehen Wiesbaden | 3-1 | VfB Oldenburg | 1 | interwetten | 1.50 | 1.47 | 1.36 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:30 | Maccabi Netanya | 0-2 | Hapoel Katamon | 2 | cloudbet | 4.19 | 3.90 | 0.48 | ✓ | |
| 18:00 | Hapoel Be'er Sheva | 1-1 | Sektzia Nes Tziona | 1 | marathonbet | 1.27 | 1.25 | 1.92 | ☓ | |
| 18:30 | Maccabi Haifa | 1-0 | Hapoel Hadera | 1 | 1XBet | 1.25 | 1.24 | 1.98 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:30 | Inter U19 | 0-1 | Sassuolo U19 | 2 | marathonbet | 3.10 | 2.93 | 0.62 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:30 | Mantova | 2-1 | Pordenone | 1 | marathonbet | 3.75 | 3.51 | 0.52 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | US Bitonto | 2-0 | Puteolana Internapoli | 1 | marathonbet | 2.43 | 2.32 | 0.74 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | Al Jalil | 1-1 | Al Buqa'a | 1 | marathonbet | 1.62 | 1.58 | 1.19 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:00 | Astana II | 2-2 | Sport Academy Kairat | 2 | 888sport | 1.73 | 1.68 | 1.13 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:00 | Ekranas | 0-2 | Babrungas | 1 | comeon | 2.85 | 2.70 | 0.64 | ☓ | |
| 17:00 | Žalgiris II | 3-2 | Dainava | 2 | pncl | 1.47 | 1.44 | 1.35 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:06 | Santos Laguna | 1-2 | Toluca | 1 | bet-at-home | 1.72 | 1.67 | 1.21 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21:45 | León W | 2-0 | Tigres UANL W | 2 | betregal | 1.20 | 1.19 | 2.24 | ☓ | |
| 23:00 | Toluca W | 1-1 | Puebla W | 1 | 888sport | 1.55 | 1.52 | 1.25 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:30 | Estudiantes Tecos | 3-1 | Tritons Vallarta | 2 | dafabet | 1.88 | 1.82 | 1.04 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | I.S.P.E | 2-2 | Sagaing United | 1 | unibet | 1.19 | 1.18 | 2.36 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:45 | Carrick Rangers U20 | 1-5 | Glentoran U20 | 1 | 1XBet | 3.78 | 3.54 | 0.55 | ☓ | |
| 20:00 | Crusaders U20 | 0-2 | Cliftonville U20 | 1 | pncl | 1.76 | 1.71 | 1.04 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:00 | Stjørdals-Blink | 1-2 | Fredrikstad | 2 | marathonbet | 1.67 | 1.63 | 1.14 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:15 | Tauro | 2-0 | Sporting San Miguelito | X | unibet | 3.20 | 3.02 | 0.59 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | Nacional Asunción | 2-0 | Guaraní | 1 | sbo | 1.98 | 1.91 | 1.18 | ✓ | |
| 23:00 | Sol de América | 1-1 | Libertad | 2 | betway | 1.65 | 1.61 | 1.14 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | Benfica U23 | 3-1 | Estoril U23 | 1 | 888sport | 1.70 | 1.66 | 1.15 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | Progresul Spartac | 0-3 | CSA Steaua Bucureşti | 1 | pncl | 4.43 | 4.11 | 0.46 | ☓ | |
| 16:15 | Otelul | 1-0 | Concordia Chiajna | 2 | pncl | 4.12 | 3.84 | 0.49 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:00 | APR | 1-1 | Police Rwanda | 2 | interwetten | 7.25 | 6.57 | 0.36 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:15 | Al Akhdoud | 3-1 | Al-Ain | 2 | pncl | 3.90 | 3.64 | 0.51 | ☓ | |
| 17:55 | Jeddah | 2-1 | Hajer | 1 | 1XBet | 3.54 | 3.32 | 0.56 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | Radnički Sr. Mitrovica | 1-0 | Jedinstvo Ub | 1 | 1XBet | 2.84 | 2.70 | 0.73 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | Cape Town Spurs | 3-1 | MM Platinum | 2 | pncl | 4.03 | 3.76 | 0.50 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20:00 | Villarreal | 2-0 | Osasuna | 1 | unibet | 1.67 | 1.63 | 1.12 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:10 | IFK Göteborg | 2-1 | Malmö FF | 2 | marathonbet | 1.87 | 1.81 | 0.96 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:30 | Trollhättan | 5-1 | Lindome | 1 | pncl | 1.61 | 1.57 | 1.18 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:00 | Landskrona | 1-0 | Västerås SK | 1 | pncl | 2.55 | 2.43 | 0.71 | ✓ | |
| 18:00 | Utsikten | 2-1 | Halmstad | 2 | titanbet | 2.00 | 1.93 | 0.89 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:15 | Neuchâtel Xamax | 1-1 | FC Schaffhausen | 1 | marathonbet | 2.40 | 2.30 | 0.81 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | Al Nasr U21 | 0-0 | Bani Yas U21 | 2 | unibet | 4.70 | 4.35 | 0.46 | ☓ | |
| 14:00 | Al Bataeh U21 | 1-2 | Al Dhafra U21 | 1 | pncl | 2.19 | 2.11 | 0.83 | ☓ | |
| 14:00 | Al Wasl U21 | 0-0 | Al Sharjah U21 | 2 | pncl | 2.29 | 2.20 | 0.78 | ☓ | |
| 14:00 | Khor Fakkan U21 | 1-0 | Ajman U21 | 2 | 1XBet | 1.52 | 1.49 | 1.31 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:00 | Torque | 0-2 | Boston River | 1 | pncl | 3.07 | 2.90 | 0.60 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | Dinamo Samarqand | 0-1 | Metalourg | X | 1XBet | 3.52 | 3.31 | 0.54 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:15 | Portuguesa | 0-1 | Deportivo Lara | 1 | tipico | 2.90 | 2.75 | 0.65 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09:30 | GT Thai Nguyen W | 2-2 | PP Ha Nam W | 2 | cashpoint | 4.33 | 4.02 | 0.47 | ☓ |