Football Value Bets 2022-10-11
You can find many websites that are giving or even selling Football value bets or Expert football picks. A big majority of them are scammers, so the question is: Why are we different? As a group of math freaks, we decided to convert our knowledge into something practical. This is however just a statement and every anonymous internet scammer would claim exactly that.
To prove our expertise, we dare you to check our results. From the calendar on the left side, pick a date and look at how we did. For each day since 2018 you can see how we did.
Did you find a day with a negative result? Yes, this happens. It is impossible to guess correctly the outcomes of hundreds of thousands football fixtures and we are not doing that.
Our aim is a long term revenue over 10% and if you check, you will see we are even better than that. What we are doing is analysing thousands of fixtures by dozens of bookmakers and selecting only football value bets
Football value bets are the fixtures where the bookmaker is for some reason giving "too much".
- Look at the list of fixtures and chose bookmakers that are legal or licensed in your country.
- Click on the bookmakers link or type in the bookmaker's url and find the fixture.
- Check if the bookmaker did not lower the odds in the meanwhile. If the odds are lower, do NOT bet on it.
- Run the suggestion through your inner sceptic and consider if betting on it is a good idea.
- Make sure to start out small.
11/10/2022 evaluation: We are showing 90 value bet opportunities from 45 leagues with stake amount £78.42, where the result is £6.99. The average market margin of stakes worth £78.42 is -7.06. This means that if the result is a higher number compared to bookies market margin, our value bets work. We see this condition to be fulfilled most of the time and you can even improve the result by doing an extra selection, using your critical thinking.
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| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:00 | Leandro Nicéforo Alem | 1-1 | Liniers | 2 | pncl | 2.91 | 2.76 | 0.64 | ☓ | |
| 19:30 | Argentino Merlo | 0-1 | Deportivo Laferrere | 2 | pncl | 6.08 | 5.56 | 0.38 | ✓ | |
| 19:30 | Real Pilar | 0-1 | Claypole | 1 | 1XBet | 2.50 | 2.39 | 0.72 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | Central Cordoba SdE | 0-3 | Newell's Old Boys | 2 | pncl | 3.36 | 3.16 | 0.56 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | Independiente Petrolero | 1-1 | Aurora | 1 | bet-at-home | 1.93 | 1.87 | 0.96 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | Levski Krumovgrad | 1-0 | Ludogorets II | 2 | betregal | 8.85 | 7.94 | 0.48 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:45 | Alianza Petrolera | 4-0 | Santa Fe | 1 | bet-at-home | 2.65 | 2.52 | 0.68 | ✓ | |
| 22:00 | Patriotas Boyacá | 1-1 | Deportivo Pasto | 1 | cloudbet | 2.52 | 2.41 | 0.72 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | Ahironas / Onisilos | 0-3 | APOEL | 2 | 1XBet | 1.18 | 1.17 | 2.41 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:00 | Jablonec | 0-1 | Vyškov | 1 | Bwin sports | 1.42 | 1.40 | 1.67 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | Independiente del Valle | 0-1 | Técnico Universitario | 1 | 188bet | 1.56 | 1.53 | 1.25 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:45 | Gillingham | 1-1 | Colchester United | 1 | betclic | 2.63 | 2.51 | 0.71 |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:45 | Charlton Athletic | 4-2 | Exeter City | 2 | pncl | 3.53 | 3.31 | 0.54 | ☓ | |
| 19:45 | Milton Keynes Dons | 0-1 | Bristol Rovers | 2 | unibet | 4.25 | 3.95 | 0.47 | ✓ | |
| 19:45 | Peterborough United | 4-1 | Forest Green Rovers | 1 | ladbrokes | 1.50 | 1.47 | 1.32 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:45 | Boldmere St Michaels | 1-0 | Halesowen Town | 1 | ladbrokes | 3.40 | 3.20 | 0.57 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:45 | Bootle FC | 0-4 | Clitheroe | 1 | sbo | 2.28 | 2.19 | 0.79 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:45 | Ware | 5-1 | Barton Rovers | 1 | pncl | 1.25 | 1.24 | 1.95 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:45 | Herne Bay | 4-1 | Lewes | 2 | pncl | 2.40 | 2.30 | 0.75 | ☓ | |
| 19:45 | Enfield Town | 1-1 | Bognor Regis Town | 2 | betfair | 3.40 | 3.20 | 0.56 | ☓ | |
| 19:45 | Potters Bar Town | 1-2 | Canvey Island | X | pncl | 3.79 | 3.55 | 0.51 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:45 | Atherton Collieries | 1-1 | Belper Town | 1 | 1XBet | 1.83 | 1.78 | 1.00 | ☓ | |
| 19:45 | Matlock Town | 1-2 | Liversedge | 1 | pncl | 1.52 | 1.49 | 1.29 | ☓ | |
| 19:45 | Stalybridge Celtic | 2-3 | Marske United | 1 | pncl | 3.85 | 3.60 | 0.51 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:45 | Basford United | 1-0 | Hednesford Town | 1 | pncl | 2.09 | 2.01 | 0.85 | ✓ | |
| 19:45 | Coalville Town | 2-2 | Redditch United | 1 | pncl | 1.70 | 1.66 | 1.09 | ☓ | |
| 19:45 | Rushall Olympic | 2-0 | Ilkeston Town | 1 | pncl | 2.12 | 2.04 | 0.85 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:45 | Dorchester Town | 0-3 | Weston-super-Mare | 2 | pncl | 1.85 | 1.79 | 0.98 | ✓ | |
| 19:45 | Hanwell Town | 3-2 | Hayes & Yeading United | X | Betsson | 4.20 | 3.91 | 0.48 | ☓ | |
| 19:45 | Poole Town | 2-2 | Bracknell Town | X | pncl | 4.40 | 4.09 | 0.46 | ✓ | |
| 19:45 | Winchester City | 2-1 | Hartley Wintney | 2 | pncl | 2.84 | 2.70 | 0.65 | ☓ | |
| 19:45 | Yate Town | 4-0 | Plymouth Parkway | 1 | marathon | 2.72 | 2.59 | 0.67 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | Colchester United U21 | 0-1 | Bristol City U21 | 2 | Betsson | 1.83 | 1.78 | 1.12 | ✓ | |
| 13:00 | Queens Park Rangers U21 | 1-2 | Millwall U21 | 1 | cloudbet | 2.94 | 2.79 | 0.68 | ☓ | |
| 13:00 | Cardiff City U21 | 4-3 | Swansea City U21 | 2 | Betsson | 2.40 | 2.30 | 0.75 | ☓ | |
| 13:00 | Coventry City U21 | 0-3 | Sheffield United U21 | 1 | marathon | 2.38 | 2.28 | 0.84 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:00 | Trans | 2-1 | Tallinna Kalev | 1 | 888sport | 1.54 | 1.51 | 1.37 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:45 | København | 0-0 | Manchester City | 2 | unibet | 1.18 | 1.17 | 2.45 | ☓ | |
| 17:45 | Maccabi Haifa | 2-0 | Juventus | 1 | Bwin sports | 6.25 | 5.70 | 0.40 | ✓ | |
| 20:00 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1-1 | Salzburg | 1 | 1XBet | 3.40 | 3.20 | 0.59 | ☓ | |
| 20:00 | Milan | 0-2 | Chelsea | 2 | Betsson | 2.45 | 2.34 | 0.73 | ✓ | |
| 20:00 | Celtic | 0-2 | RB Leipzig | 1 | unibet | 3.90 | 3.64 | 0.55 | ☓ | |
| 20:00 | Borussia Dortmund | 1-1 | Sevilla | 1 | Betsson | 1.55 | 1.52 | 1.26 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | Shakhtar Donetsk U19 | 0-3 | Real Madrid U19 | 2 | ladbrokes | 1.22 | 1.21 | 2.15 | ✓ | |
| 13:00 | København U19 | 1-3 | Manchester City U19 | 2 | betfair | 2.40 | 2.30 | 0.75 | ✓ | |
| 13:00 | Paris SG U19 | 2-3 | Benfica U19 | 2 | 1XBet | 2.78 | 2.64 | 0.66 | ✓ | |
| 14:00 | Celtic U19 | 0-2 | RB Leipzig U19 | 1 | 888sport | 1.60 | 1.56 | 1.18 | ☓ | |
| 15:00 | Borussia Dortmund U19 | 2-0 | Sevilla U19 | 1 | 888sport | 1.95 | 1.89 | 0.92 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:00 | Altona 93 | 2-0 | Victoria Hamburg | 1 | 888sport | 2.63 | 2.51 | 0.69 | ✓ | |
| 18:30 | Paloma | 0-0 | Buchholz | 1 | pncl | 1.49 | 1.46 | 1.33 | ☓ | |
| 18:30 | Osdorf | 2-0 | Wandsbeker TSV Concordia | 2 | pncl | 1.57 | 1.53 | 1.23 | ☓ | |
| 19:00 | Eimsbutteler TV | 3-0 | Hamm United | 1 | pncl | 1.35 | 1.33 | 1.62 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:45 | Kleve | 2-1 | SF Baumberg | 1 | pncl | 2.02 | 1.95 | 0.90 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16:05 | Jamshedpur | 2-3 | Odisha FC | 2 | unibet | 4.15 | 3.86 | 0.48 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:45 | Mes Shahr-e Babak | 1-1 | Caspian Qazvin | 2 | pncl | 2.90 | 2.75 | 0.68 | ☓ | |
| 12:45 | Darya Babol | 1-0 | Khalij Fars | 1 | 1XBet | 2.38 | 2.28 | 0.77 | ✓ | |
| 14:00 | Pars Jam Bushehr | 0-1 | Arman Gohar | 1 | nitrogen sports | 2.24 | 2.15 | 0.83 | ☓ | |
| 14:15 | Esteghlal Mollasani | 1-1 | Khooshe Talaee Saveh | X | betway | 3.00 | 2.84 | 0.68 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | Kamogawa W | 3-1 | Nittaidai W | 1 | pncl | 2.22 | 2.13 | 0.80 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | Amman | 2-2 | Al Arabi | 1 | 1XBet | 2.38 | 2.28 | 0.76 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:30 | Jeonbuk Motors | 1-0 | Gangwon | 1 | dafabet | 2.08 | 2.01 | 0.86 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | Selangor United | 0-1 | Selangor | 2 | 888sport | 1.65 | 1.61 | 1.24 | ✓ | |
| 13:15 | Pahang | 1-2 | Sabah | X | 888sport | 3.85 | 3.60 | 0.51 | ☓ | |
| 14:00 | MISC | 2-0 | Pulau Pinang | 2 | ladbrokes | 7.00 | 6.35 | 0.35 | ☓ | |
| 14:00 | Kuala Lumpur | 1-2 | Terengganu | 2 | 1XBet | 2.25 | 2.16 | 0.83 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23:05 | Raya2 | 2-2 | Pumas Tabasco | 1 | interwetten | 1.70 | 1.66 | 1.22 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:00 | Stabæk II | 3-1 | Grorud II | 1 | betfair | 1.65 | 1.61 | 1.16 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | Sporting CP U23 | 2-1 | Mafra U23 | 2 | pncl | 4.19 | 3.90 | 0.51 | ☓ | |
| 16:00 | Estoril U23 | 2-0 | Estrela U23 | 1 | 188bet | 1.94 | 1.88 | 0.92 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:45 | Al-Ain | 2-1 | Jeddah | 1 | pncl | 2.71 | 2.58 | 0.67 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:30 | Al Feiha | 0-3 | Al Ittifaq | 1 | 1XBet | 2.68 | 2.55 | 0.71 | ☓ | |
| 18:30 | Al Khaleej | 1-2 | Al Fateh | 1 | pncl | 3.75 | 3.51 | 0.52 | ☓ | |
| 18:30 | Al Nassr | 4-1 | Al Adalh | 2 | cashpoint | 13.56 | 11.90 | 0.24 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:45 | Kelty Hearts | 1-0 | Queen of the South | 1 | ladbrokes | 3.10 | 2.93 | 0.61 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:45 | Elgin City | 1-0 | Albion Rovers | 1 | pncl | 1.99 | 1.92 | 0.91 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19:45 | Dundee United | 1-0 | Hibernian | 2 | unibet | 2.20 | 2.11 | 0.82 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | Livingston Res. | 0-1 | Hibernian Res. | 1 | unibet | 1.72 | 1.67 | 1.55 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | FK Košice | 2-3 | Komárno | 2 | betvictor | 5.25 | 4.83 | 0.42 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:00 | Jönköpings Södra | 1-1 | Brage | 2 | marathon | 3.48 | 3.27 | 0.56 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | Maroons | 0-0 | Wakiso Giants | 1 | 1XBet | 1.98 | 1.91 | 0.90 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:15 | Dibba Al Fujairah | 0-1 | Al Jazira | 2 | unibet | 1.72 | 1.67 | 1.21 | ✓ | |
| 14:15 | Bani Yas | 0-3 | Al Sharjah | 2 | nitrogen sports | 3.80 | 3.55 | 0.59 | ✓ | |
| 17:00 | Al Wahda | 2-1 | Al Ittihad Kalba | 2 | titanbet | 3.90 | 3.64 | 0.54 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:30 | Cerro Largo | 2-1 | Rentistas | 1 | interwetten | 2.15 | 2.07 | 0.85 | ✓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | Hue | 0-1 | Quang Nam | 2 | 1XBet | 2.59 | 2.47 | 0.76 | ✓ | |
| 10:30 | Công An Nhân Dân | 1-1 | Bà Ria Vũng Tàu | 1 | 188bet | 1.77 | 1.72 | 1.05 | ☓ |
| # | Kick-off | Home | Result | Away | Value Bet | Bookmaker | Odds | Fair odds | Stake | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17:00 | Denmark W | 1-3 | Australia W | 2 | 188bet | 2.95 | 2.79 | 0.64 | ✓ | |
| 17:30 | Sweden W | 3-0 | France W | 2 | pncl | 2.79 | 2.65 | 0.66 | ☓ | |
| 18:00 | Costa Rica W | 2-1 | Philippines W | 1 | 1XBet | 1.60 | 1.56 | 1.18 | ✓ | |
| 19:00 | Netherlands W | 0-2 | Norway W | 1 | interwetten | 1.40 | 1.38 | 1.50 | ☓ |